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Report projects U.S. population decline as birth rates remain low

July 9, 2026 · 1 min read

A report from the Institute for Family Studies warns that the United States is approaching a demographic turning point, with fertility rates continuing to fall well below replacement levels and population declines increasingly likely in the coming decades unless current trends change.

The report, titled ”The Demographic Dead End: 2026 State of Fertility Report,” presents estimates of fertility trends for every state dating back to 1917. As part of the nation’s 250th anniversary, researchers also reconstructed birth rates in Massachusetts dating to 1660, offering one of the longest historical views of American fertility ever compiled.

According to the report, the U.S. fertility rate has fallen to about 1.6 children per woman, well below the replacement level of about 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. Researchers said the decline is no longer a temporary consequence of delayed childbearing but reflects a sustained demographic shift.

The authors projected that if trends continue, the U.S. population will likely peak during the 2050s before entering a prolonged period of decline. They contend that many mainstream demographic forecasts underestimate…

Source: Catholic News Agency · Read the full story →

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Константин Козлов

In Russia, our birth rate is also low, below 1.6 in recent years. And the article is interesting that they were digging in Massachusetts even before 1660 - this is serious. Without children and family, the country really comes to a dead end, as they write.

Петро Мороз

In Ukraine, we also have a problem with the birth rate, somewhere at the level of 1.1–1.3 in recent years. It is interesting that in Massachusetts they pulled out statistics up to the year 1660 - it is really thorough. Without the normal support of families, we will also come to the same "demographic impasse", as they write.

Евгения Козлова

In Tula, too, the birth rate has long been below 1.5, and without normal assistance to young families with housing and nurseries, this cannot be corrected. It’s interesting that in the report they reached 1660 in Massachusetts - this is a solid approach. Without children, the country really comes to a dead end, as Konstantin wrote.