Report projects U.S. population decline as birth rates remain low

A report from the Institute for Family Studies warns that the United States is approaching a demographic turning point, with fertility rates continuing to fall well below replacement levels and population declines increasingly likely in the coming decades unless current trends change.

The report, titled ”The Demographic Dead End: 2026 State of Fertility Report,” presents estimates of fertility trends for every state dating back to 1917. As part of the nation’s 250th anniversary, researchers also reconstructed birth rates in Massachusetts dating to 1660, offering one of the longest historical views of American fertility ever compiled.

According to the report, the U.S. fertility rate has fallen to about 1.6 children per woman, well below the replacement level of about 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. Researchers said the decline is no longer a temporary consequence of delayed childbearing but reflects a sustained demographic shift.

The authors projected that if trends continue, the U.S. population will likely peak during the 2050s before entering a prolonged period of decline. They contend that many mainstream demographic forecasts underestimate…