The US has made progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the Iran war is far from over

In recent weeks, the United States has succeeded in loosening Iran’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran’s own oil exports, accelerating its economic free fall.

But the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in February — intended to last a few weeks — is still far from over, and the stalemate is costly for both sides. An agreement reached in June quickly crumbled , with no sign of diplomatic progress since then. Low-level fighting persists, and the U.S. does not seem to have an exit strategy.

The mounting economic pressure on Iran has yet to stoke an uprising, and if its leaders are backed into a corner, they may opt for military escalation rather than capitulation. Their Houthi allies in Yemen have meanwhile stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia , helping to push oil prices back up.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged above $100 this week, and diesel — heavily used in transport and farming — hit a record, potentially stoking inflation. U.S. President Donald Trump has acknowledged that gas prices are likely to stay high through the midterm congressional elections.

“Unfortunately, the U.S. is not winning in the…