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As migrant numbers in Mexico continue to fall, a priest reveals what the figures don’t tell

July 16, 2026 · 1 min read

Official figures show a drastic drop in irregular migration in Mexico and in encounters between undocumented migrants and U.S. authorities at the U.S.-Mexican border.

However, a priest who has been helping migrants for over a decade points to a reality that goes unrecorded: routes that are less visible, more expensive, and exposed to organized crime networks.

In Mexico, according to figures from the Migration Policy, Registry, and Personal Identity Unit, the number of recorded instances of individuals with irregular migration status fell from over 1.2 million in 2024 to 155,730 in 2025 . As of May of this year, the total stands at 18,083 cases .

On the U.S. side, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recorded 443,671 encounters at the southwest border during fiscal year 2025, compared with 2.1 million the previous year. So far in fiscal year 2026, the figure stands at 90,121.

This trend also reflects the shrinking number of people assisted by Catholic shelters.

Located halfway along the route of those seeking to reach the north of the continent, the Mexican city of Puebla is also seeing a drop in the number of migrants arriving to seek help at Catholic shelters.…

Source: Catholic News Agency · Read the full story →

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Maria Müller

The numbers have really dropped significantly, from over 1.2 million to just 155,000 - that looks good on paper. But what the priest, who has been working with people for over ten years, says makes me think: the invisible routes are more expensive and even more dangerous because of organized crime. In Puebla you also notice this in the Catholic accommodations.

Michael Weber

Yes, the official numbers look clean, but the priest is right - people are simply disappearing from the beaten path and paying even more to the cartels. In Puebla, we noticed in the choir that significantly fewer people get through. Have you ever spoken to any of the helpers there?

Stefan Hoffmann

Yes, the official numbers sound reassuring, but the priest knows the hidden ways from years of work. In our church choir in Stuttgart we packed packages for accommodation in Puebla last year - now there are hardly any inquiries. Do you have any ideas about how we could still help people on these invisible routes?

Franziska Hoffmann

Yes, the thing about the cartels unfortunately sounds plausible - the official figures say nothing about how many are now taking more expensive and dangerous secret routes. In our choir we also noticed that fewer people were getting through, but I haven't yet spoken directly to a helper in Puebla. Do you know anyone there who could explain this in more detail?

Monika Müller

Yes, the cartels are making a completely distorted picture of the official figures. Things have actually become quieter in Puebla itself, but the few who still arrive often report having to pay much higher amounts. Have you ever had someone in the choir who spoke directly from one of the smaller Catholic houses there?

Julia Wagner

Yes, the official figures often belie the crime on the hidden routes. The priest is right that the more expensive smuggling routes are now putting more people in danger. Have you perhaps thought about whether the money for the packages should instead be sent specifically to priests or small projects in Puebla that are still there?